Peer Review Publications
We regularly publish high-quality and influential research in top peer-reviewed journals
Our Publications
SHINE research seeks to synthesise techniques from epidemiology, mathematics, and data science to conduct sophisticated simulation modelling analyses of public health interventions. Our research efforts are broadly grouped into five themes, which you can explore on this page.
Find out more about our ongoing research or to review our research protocol via the links below.
Theme 1: SHINE Infrastructure
This research theme comprises all publications that have contributed to the development of the general ecosystem of SHINE simulation modelling: from the proportional multistate lifetable (PMSLT) simulation modelling framework, to input data used in simulation models, to end-user tools that visualise and compare results of health interventions.
- Blakely T., Demsiss W., Ramsay D. Is morbidity expanding? an epidemiological framework for understanding morbidity expansion and multimorbidity. International Journal of Epidemiology. 2026 Jun;55(3):dyag037. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyag037
- Grimshaw S., Bourke E., Blakely T. Estimates of non-communicable disease expenditure by disease phase, sex, and age group for all OECD countries. Population Health Metrics. 2025 Oct 8;23(1):53. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-025-00418-5
- Carvalho N., Sousa TV., Mizdrak A., Jones A., Wilson N., Blakely T. Comparing health gains, costs and cost-effectiveness of 100s of interventions in Australia and New Zealand: an online interactive league table. Population Health Metrics. 2022 Jul 27;20(1):17. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-022-00294-3
- Andersen P., Mizdrak A., Wilson N., Davies A., Bablani L., Blakely T. Disaggregating proportional multistate lifetables by population heterogeneity to estimate intervention impacts on inequalities. Population Health Metrics. 2022 Jan 15;20(1):6. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-022-00282-7
- Blakely T., Sigglekow F., Irfan M., Mizdrak A., Dieleman J., Bablani L., Clarke P., Wilson N. Disease-related income and economic productivity loss in New Zealand: A longitudinal analysis of linked individual-level data. PLOS Medicine. 2021 Nov 30;18(11):e1003848. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003848
- Blakely T., Moss R., Collins J., Mizdrak A., Singh A., Carvalho N., Wilson N., Geard N., Flaxman A. Proportional multistate lifetable modelling of preventive interventions: concepts, code and worked examples. International Journal of Epidemiology. 2020 Oct 1;49(5):1624–36. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaa132
- Blakely T., Kvizhinadze G., Atkinson J., Dieleman J., Clarke P. Health system costs for individual and comorbid noncommunicable diseases: An analysis of publicly funded health events from New Zealand. PLOS Medicine. 2019 Jan 8;16(1):e1002716. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002716
- Howe S., Blakely T. SHINE protocol for specifying model inputs, including rapid review and cross-walking (Version 1.0). SHINE Technical Report Series, No 1. Available at: [Online publication date 08 March 2023]
Theme 2: Pandemic Modelling
This research theme comprises applications of our simulation modelling to the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia, and internationally, as well as the ongoing efforts in preparing for future pandemics. Research in this sphere has occurred in collaboration with various government and private organisations, both domestically and abroad. These efforts are developed simultaneously with our online pandemic trade-offs interactive tools to visualise and communicate key modelling results.
- Szanyi J., Yang Y., Zeng J., Clarke C., Buttery A., Blakely T. Effectiveness of COVID‑19 vaccine booster doses in adults aged 50 years and over during the Omicron period in Victoria, Australia. Communicable Diseases Intelligence. 2026;50. https://ojs.cdi.cdc.gov.au/index.php/cdi/article/view/3459
- Blakely T. Lessons from COVID‑19 for policy‑facing epidemiologists needing to consider health, social, and economic impacts. International Journal of Epidemiology. 2026 Feb;55(1):dyaf226. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf226
- Rossiter, S., Howe, S., Szanyi, J., Trauer, J., Wilson, T., & Blakely, T. The role of economic evaluation in modelling public health and social measures for pandemic policy: a systematic review. Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation. 2024;22(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12962-024-00585-6
- Howe S., Szanyi J., Blakely T. The health impact of long COVID during the 2021–2022 Omicron wave in Australia: a quantitative burden of disease study. International Journal of Epidemiology. 2023 Jun 1;52(3):677–89. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyad033
- Szanyi J., Wilson T., Howe S., Zeng J., Andrabi H., Rossiter S., Blakely T. Epidemiologic and economic modelling of optimal COVID-19 policy: public health and social measures, masks and vaccines in Victoria, Australia. The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific. 2023 Mar 32:100675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100675
- Szanyi J., Wilson T., Scott N., Blakely T. A log-odds system for waning and boosting of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness. Vaccine. 2022 Jun 21;40(28):3821–4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.05.039
- Blakely T., Thompson J., Bablani L., Andersen P., Ait Ouakrim D., Carvalho N., Abraham P., Boujaoude M., Katar A., Akpan E., Wilson N., Stevenson M. Association of Simulated COVID-19 Policy Responses for Social Restrictions and Lockdowns With Health-Adjusted Life-Years and Costs in Victoria, Australia. JAMA Health Forum. 2021 Jul 30;2(7):e211749. 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.1749
- Blakely T., Thompson J., Carvalho N., Bablani L., Wilson N., Stevenson M. The probability of the 6‐week lockdown in Victoria (commencing 9 July 2020) achieving elimination of community transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2. The Medical Journal of Australia. 2020; 213 (8): 349-351.e1. https://doi.org/10.5694/mja2.50786
Theme 3: Diet and Physical Activity
This research theme encompasses our extensive research efforts with dietary modelling in New Zealand, Australia, and the United Kingdom. The next generation of SHINE modelling with extend these analyses in collaboration with other research groups.
- Dhungel B., Grimshaw S., Wilson T., Fox L., Breadon P., Trieu K., Neal B., Blakely T. The health and cost impacts of interventions designed to reduce dietary sodium intake in Australia: a modelling study. The Journal of Nutrition. 2025 Oct; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tjnut.2025.10.009 [Free Access]
- Bourke E., Rawstorn J., Maddison R., Blakely T. The effects of physical inactivity on other risk factors for chronic disease: A systematic review of reviews. Preventive Medicine Reports. 2024 Oct;46:102866. https://doi.org.10.1016/j.pmedr.2024.102866
- Bohora S., Mishra SR., Wilson T., Blakely T. Health gains from achieving optimal body mass index in Australia: a simulation study. The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific. 2024 Aug 1;49:101148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101148
- Bourke, E., Maddison, R., Blakely, T. Getting the epidemiological associations of physical inactivity with diseases and injuries correct in comparative risk assessment. International Journal of Epidemiology. 2023; 52(6)1677–1680. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyad107
- Blakely T., Grimshaw S., Wilson T. The Health and Cost Impacts of Sodium Reduction Interventions in Australia: Scalable Health Intervention Evaluation (SHINE) Report Series. 2023 Oct. Available at: [Online]
- Bablani L., Mhurchu CN., Neal B., Skeels CL., Staub KE., Blakely T. The impact of voluntary front-of-pack nutrition labelling on packaged food reformulation: A difference-in-differences analysis of the Australasian Health Star Rating scheme. PLOS Medicine. 2020 Nov 20;17(11):e1003427. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003427
- Blakely T., Cleghorn C., Mizdrak A., Waterlander W., Nghiem N., Swinburn B., Wilson N., Ni Mhurchu C. The effect of food taxes and subsidies on population health and health costs: a modelling study. The Lancet Public Health. 2020 Jul;5(7):e404–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30116-X
Theme 4: Tobacco
This research theme encompasses the applications of our proportional multistate lifetable (PMSLT) simulation modelling framework to tobacco interventions in New Zealand. Research in this domain has occurred in collaboration with international government agencies, and is currently being adapted to different countries.
- Howe S., Wilson T., Morphett K., Mason K., Lai G., Rees V. W., Ait Ouakrim D. Estimating the harms from smoking and second-hand smoke exposure in social housing: a modelling study. Social Science & Medicine. 2026;398:119197. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2026.119197
- Ait Ouakrim D., Wilson T., Howe S., Clarke P., Gartner C., Wilson N., Blakely T. Economic effects for citizens and the government of a country‑level tobacco endgame strategy: a modelling study. Tobacco Control. 2025 Dec 19;34:e9–e16. https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2023-058131
- Howe, S., Wilson, T., Gartner, C., Blakely, T., Ait Ouakrim, D. A novel tobacco forecasting model by multiple sociodemographic strata in Australia. International Journal of Epidemiology. 2025;54(2). https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf038
- Ait Ouakrim D., Wilson, T., Howe, S., Summers, J., Edwards, R., Gartner, C., Wilson, N., & Blakely, T. Modelling the potential impacts of limiting vaping product sales to pharmacies. Tobacco Control. 2025. https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2025-059305
- Ait Ouakrim D., Wilson T., Waa A., Maddox R., Andrabi H., Mishra SR., Summers JA., Gartner C., Lovett R., Edwards R., Wilson N., Blakely T. Tobacco endgame intervention impacts on health gains and Māori:non-Māori health inequity: a simulation study of the Aotearoa/New Zealand Tobacco Action Plan. Tobacco Control. 2024 Dec 1;33(e2):e173–84. https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2022-057655
- Singh A., Wilson N., Blakely T. Simulating future public health benefits of tobacco control interventions: a systematic review of models. Tobacco Control. 2021 Jul 1;30(4):460–70. https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2019-055425
- Singh A., Petrović-van der Deen FS., Carvalho N., Lopez AD., Blakely T. Impact of tax and tobacco-free generation on health-adjusted life years in the Solomon Islands: a multistate life table simulation. Tobacco Control. 2020 Jul;29(4):388–97. https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054861
- Petrović-van der Deen FS., Wilson N., Crothers A., Cleghorn CL., Gartner C., Blakely T. Potential Country-level Health and Cost Impacts of Legalizing Domestic Sale of Vaporized Nicotine Products. Epidemiology. 2019 May;30(3):396–404. https://doi.org/10.1097/ede.0000000000000975
Theme 5: Housing
This research theme encompasses applications of our proportional multistate lifetable (PMSLT) simulation modelling framework to housing interventions domestically, and abroad. Research in this domain has occurred in collaboration with the Healthy Housing CRE.
- Mishra SR., Wilson T., Andrabi H., Ait Ouakrim D., Li A., Akpan E., Bentley R., Blakely T. The total health gains and cost savings of eradicating cold housing in Australia. Social Science & Medicine. 2023 Oct 1;334:115954. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.115954