Tobacco Control Interventions
SHINE Director Professor Tony Blakely has over 20 years of experience in tobacco control research, including ten years simulating the impact of tobacco control interventions on health gains and costs (see selected publications listed at bottom of this page).
The tobacco control model Blakely built in NZ (2010-19) whilst Director of the BODE3 program has been judged the best of 25 similar models internationally. This model has now been evolved further to be the SHINE-Tobacco model, coded in Python for greater functionality.
In 2021, SHINE was commissioned by the New Zealand Government to simulate the health gains and costs of three proposed strategies: denicotinisation of all retailed tobacco; 95% reduction in retail outlets; and a tobacco-free generation. Our analyses underpinned the Government’s Action Plan that is – arguably – the world’s most audacious plan to rid a country of tobacco-related harm. A pre-print of the health and health inequality impacts of these policies is here. A publication on the health expenditure, income and net impacts on Government revenue and savings is in progress.
Other SHINE-Tobacco simulation projects currently in progress include:
- Quantifying the health gains by disease grouping for the NZ strategy
- Health and cost impacts of tobacco endgame strategies applied in Australia, including impacts on socioeconomic and Indigenous inequalities in health.
- SHINE is part of the Tobacco Endgame Centre of Research Excellence.
Selected examples of tobacco control simulation studies that SHINE is building on:
- Blakely T, Cleghorn C, Petrovic-van der Deen F, Cobiac LJ, Mizdrak A, Mackenbach JP, Woodward A, van Baal P, Wilson N. Prospective impact of tobacco eradication and overweight and obesity eradication on future morbidity and health-adjusted life expectancy: simulation study. J Epidemiol Community Health 2020; 74(4): 354-61.
- Blakely T, Cobiac LJ, Cleghorn CL, Pearson AL, van der Deen FS, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, McLeod M, Wilson N. Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand. PLoS Med 2015; 12(7): e1001856.
- Pearson AL, Cleghorn CL, van der Deen FS, Cobiac LJ, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, Blakely T, Wilson N. Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population. Tob Control 2017; 26: 579–85.
- Petrovic-Van Der Deen FS, Blakely T, Kvizhinadze G, Cleghorn CL, Cobiac LJ, Wilson N. Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice: A modelling study of the future smoking prevalence, health and cost impacts. Tobacco Control 2019; 28(6): 643-50.
- Van der Deen FS, Wilson N, Cleghorn C, Kvizhinadze G, Cobiac L, Nghiem N, Blakely T. Impact of five tobacco endgame strategies on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs: two modelling studies to inform the tobacco endgame. Tob Control 2018; 27(3): 278-86.
- Singh A, Petrović-van der Deen FS, Carvalho N, Lopez AD, Blakely T. Impact of tax and tobacco-free generation on health-adjusted life years in the Solomon Islands: a multistate life table simulation. Tobacco Control 2019; 29(4): 388-97.
- Petrovic-van der Deen FS, Wilson N, Crothers A, Cleghorn CL, Gartner C, Blakely T. Potential Country-level Health and Cost Impacts of Legalizing Domestic Sale of Vaporized Nicotine Products. Epidemiol 2019; 30(3): 396-404.