SHINE Working Paper Series
The SHINE Working Paper Series provides a timely platform for sharing innovative research at the intersection of epidemiology, health economics and data science. Our focus is on quantifying the health, health inequality and economic impacts of population-level health interventions to support informed and effective policy decisions. Papers in this series explore a wide range of topics, from methodological advancements to actual intervention evaluations. We welcome constructive feedback from the wider academic and policy community on these working papers.
Working Papers
- Bourke E., Wilson T., Maddison R., Blakely T. Future health gain from increasing physical activity in Australia, including multiple physiological effects of physical activity, and falls and injury risk: a simulation study. medRxiv. 2026. Mar 28:2026.03.28.26349629. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.28.26349629
- Howe S., Wilson T., Gartner C., Eades S., Blakely T., Ait Ouakrim D. Health and equity impact of achieving 5% smoking prevalence by 2030 in Australia: a simulation modelling study. SSRN. 2026 Jan 27:6100921. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6100921
- Wilson T., Howe S., Khuu S., Flaxman A., Blakely T. Specifying prospective compartmental models of chronic disease. medRxiv. 2026. Jan 14:2026.01.14.26344075. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.14.26344075
- Khuu S., Wilson T., Dhungel B., Howe S., Blakely T. The Health Interventions Impact Calculator (HIIC): scaling up web-based access to proportional multistate lifetable analyses of avoidable burden, health gain and economic impacts. medRxiv. 2025. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.02.01.26345324
- Dhungel B., Wilson T., Khuu S., Blakely T. Forecasting risk factor distributions by sex and age in any country, 1990 to 2050: A parametric estimation framework using GBD summary exposure values and other inputs. The University of Melbourne. Preprint. 2025. https://doi.org/10.26188/31310767
- Dhungel B., Yang J., Wilson T., Grimshaw S., Bourke E., Khuu S, et al. The impact on health system expenditure in Australia and OECD countries from accelerated NCD mortality decline through prevention or treatment strategies to achieve Sustainable Development Goal Target 3.4. arXiv; 2025. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2509.10795
- Li Y., Mishra SR., Wilson T., Bentley R., Blakely T. Quantifying Health Gains and Health System Expenditure Impacts of Eliminating Indoor Mould in Homes. medRxiv. 2025. p. 2025.04.13.25325769. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.04.13.25325769