National COVID-19 Epidemic Situational Assessment (2020–23)

Project Details

Between March 2020–December 2023, Prof McCaw and Dr Shearer coordinated a national team of researchers to support the Australian response to COVID-19 through model-based epidemic analysis, including nowcasting and forecasting.

Contributors included researchers from University of Melbourne, Telethon Kids Institute and Curtin University, Doherty Institute, Defence Science and Technology Group, University of Adelaide, Monash University and University of New South Wales.

Key analyses included real-time estimates of the rate of virus spread (the effective reproduction number), trends in population behaviour, and the impact of behaviour, immunity (infection- and vaccine-induced), health system effectiveness, and variant characteristics on the potential for virus spread. These analyses allowed us to describe observed trends in COVID-19 epidemiology over time and space, and importantly, anticipate future possible trends.

Drawing on the above analyses, we produced state-level forecasts of daily incident cases from an 'ensemble forecast’ of independent models (developed by independent teams). The ensemble forecast was used, in conjunction with data on hospitalisation (admission probabilities, length-of-stay) to compute forecasts of ward and ICU occupancy.

Outputs were produced weekly for all jurisdictions according to the Australian National Disease Surveillance Plan for COVID-19 and reported to key national decision-making committees including the Communicable Diseases Network of Australia (CDNA), the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC), and the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI). Public summaries were available via the Australian Government’s Common Operating Picture and via periodic technical reports (link below). Weekly situational assessment reports were provided to key decision-making committees in-confidence, and were made public in December 2023 (link below).

Weekly situational assessment reports

Technical reports COVID-19 epidemiology and modelling

Note: Peer-reviewed publications and pre-prints can be found here.

1. [12 August 2022] Technical report: Situational assessment of COVID-19 in Australia
2. [28 May 2021] Technical report: Situational assessment of COVID-19 in Australia
3. [17 July 2020] Technical report: Estimating temporal variation in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and physical distancing behaviour in Australia
4. [15 May 2020] Technical report: Estimating temporal variation in transmission of COVID-19 and adherence to social distancing measures in Australia
5. [5 May 2020] Technical report: Estimating temporal variation in transmission of COVID-19 and adherence to social distancing measures in Australia
6. [14 April 2020] Technical report: Estimating the case detection rate and temporal variation in transmission of COVID-19 in Australia

Researchers

Prof Nick Golding

Dr August Hao

Prof James McCaw

Dr Robert Moss

Dr David Price

Dr Gerry Ryan

Dr Kate Senior

Dr Freya Shearer

Mr Ruarai Tobin

Dr Camelia Walker

Collaborators

Dr Adeshina Adekunle (Defence Science and Technology Group)

Dr Peter Dawson (Defence Science and Technology Group)

Prof Rob Hyndman (Monash University)

Mr Mitchell O’Hara-Wild (Monash University)

Prof James Wood (University of New South Wales)

Funding

Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care

Research Outcomes

Eales O, Teo M, Price DJ, Hao T, Ryan GE, Senior KL, Carlson S, Dalton C, Dawson P, Golding N, McCaw JM, & Shearer FM (2024). Temporal trends in test-seeking behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic. medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.06.06.24308566

Golding N, Price DJ, Ryan GE, McVernon J, McCaw JM & Shearer F (2023). A modelling approach to estimate the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 during periods of high, low and zero case incidence. eLife 78089. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.78089

Tobin RJ, Wood JG, Jayasundara D, Sara G, Walker CR, Martin GE, McCaw JM, Shearer FM, & Price DJ (2023). Real-time analysis of hospital length of stay in a mixed SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta epidemic in New South Wales, Australia. BMC Infectious Diseases, 23(1), 28. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-022-07971-6

Moss R, Price DJ, Golding N, Dawson P, McVernon J, Hyndman RJ, Shearer FM, & McCaw JM (2023). Forecasting COVID-19 activity in Australia to support pandemic response: May to October 2020. Scientific Reports, 13(1), 8763. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-35668-6

Price DJ*, Shearer FM*, Meehan MT, McBryde E, Moss R, Golding N, Conway EJ, Dawson P, Cromer D, Wood JG, Abbott S, McVernon J, & McCaw JM (2020). Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic, eLife 9: e58785  https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.58785