CEB - COVID-19 Research News

Re-published in Pursuit 24 May 2020. A version of this article was first published in The Sun Herald.

When you’re in a medical emergency, you don’t typically think of calling a statistician. However, the COVID-19 outbreak has shown just how necessary a clear understanding of data and modelling is to help prevent the spread of disease.

Published in https://www.aljazeera.com/ 22 April 2020

Honorary Professor John Mathews

Transmission electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV-2-also known as 2019-nCoV, the virus that causes COVID-19. Picture: Getty ImagesPublished in Pursuit, 22 April 2020By Dr Robert Mahar, University of Melbourne, Associate Professor Steven Tong and Dr David Price, University of Melbourne and Doherty Institute of Infection and Immunity

Professor Jodie McVernon (pictured far right), Professor and Director of Doherty Epidemiology, Honorary Professor and Head of Modelling and Simulation Unit in the Centre for Epidemiology  and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global HealthPublished on ABC - Q and A 20 April 2020

Estimating the case detection rate and temporal variation in transmission of COVID-19 in Australia Technical Report 14 April 2020

Breanne Remmos (L) and twin Tamara McDonald (R)Professor John Hopper Director of Twins Research Australia, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics talks to Michael Fowler at The Age about a world-first study of tens of thousands of Australian twins, launched on Sunday, that will help form a picture of how the pandemic is affecting our lives. Read more...Published in The Age 11 April 2020

Doherty Institute researchers have released their work on COVID-19 modelling to the general public. These models have been utilised by the Commonwealth Government in the public health response to COVID-19.

They are a vital part of moving from preparedness to targeted response.

An opinion article by Professor Tony Blakely, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health published on 3rd April 2020....Australia owes a debt of gratitude to its pandemic modellers, public health officials and politicians – we have avoided the explosive beginning of a COVID-19 epidemic that most other countries are now cursed with. Read more

Professor Tony Blakely, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health“It has become clear to me that we have two major problems now with the COVID response: a lack of critical information (including modelling done for the Government) accessible by both experts and the public so we can understand and participate in decision-making; and a deep confusion now about what flattening the curve means (is it suppressing COVID infection to the lowest possible level we can achieve short of elimination, or is it a level of COVID infection in the population that allows the epidemic to pass to herd immunity within the constraints of health system capacity?).  In this Pursuit article (originally published in the Australian Financial Review) I explore these issues, and makes the case that we have a moment in time now – with rates of COIVD actually quite low and slow daily increases due to our physical distancing – for a more informed public discussion and participatory democracy leading to decision-making with societal consent.” -Read this article in The Pursuit for the latest information on possible approaches to the management of COVID19 from Professor Tony Blakely.

There's been a lot of guesswork about how long it'll take for life to get back to normal after COVID-19.Six months is a timeframe that has come up in recent policy responses, but it could last twice that.The dilemma at the core of this pandemic has always been whether societies would be willing to pay the price to save lives.So how long should Australia be prepared to stay in hibernation, in order to keep the death toll here down?Professor Tony Blakely, from Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics discusses the options with ABC's The Signal.https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/the-signal/the-covid-timeline/12108476

In this Pursuit article Professor Tony Blakely, Dr Laxman Bablani and Dr Patrick Andersen from the Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics explain how Mathematical and epidemiological modelling helps us understand whether Australia is flattening the COVID-19 curve and allows us to work backwards from a manageable health services demand – keeping it ‘just flat enough’.https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/flattening-the-curve-to-help-australia-s-hospitals-prepare

Australian government recently endorsed stricter social distancing measures to tackle the spread of the coronavirus, requiring four square metres of space per person in an enclosed room. What is the right social distancing policy for Australia if we are flattening the curve? Professor Tony Blakely talks to The Conversation.https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-modelling-shows-the-government-is-getting-the-balance-right-if-our-aim-is-to-flatten-the-curve-134040

It's clear watching Italy that if COVID-19 spreads too quickly, the health system will buckle, and if it does, it won't be possible for doctors to help everyone.In this episode The Signal explores with Prof Tony Blakely the sometimes ugly principles that determine who gets help in a crisis, and who misses out.

In this podcast, the ABC Signal team and Professor Tony Blakely talk about 'flattening the curve', and containment shifts to mitigation.