PhD Completion Seminar: Modelling Residential Aged Care in Australia: Entry and Exit

Room 410, Level 4, 207 Bouverie Street

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Centre for Health Policy

T: +61 3 8344 0710

This thesis examines the residential aged care trajectory of older Australians utilising numerous data sources, including: unit record survey data (SDAC),aged care funding instrument (ACFI) and aged care assessment program (ACAP) administrative data. The core research steps include: (1) modelling the probability of entry to and exit from residential care; (2) modelling applications and approvals;(3) derivation of transition and mortality assumptions for care; (4) approximation of mortality rates,and (5) demonstrating the usefulness of these data for future projections. Implications for residential aged care policies in Australia and the future of aged care are discussed.

Dr Marijan Jukic is a demographer and a lead data scientist at the NSW Government Data Analytics Centre. He holds Master Degree in Geography from the University of Zagreb (CRO), Master Degree in Demography from the University of Southampton (UK) and Ph.D. in Demography from the University of Zagreb (CRO). Previously, Marijan worked as a research associate, consultant and business analyst in several European countries and in Australia. Marijan’s research priorities include modelling of aged care and healthcare systems, using machine learning and predictive modelling in health sciences and Australian demography.