The SHINE team is constantly producing high-quality, influential research, which you can read about in the following peer-reviewed publications

Key SHINE Publications

SHINE Infrastructure

A tutorial-style paper explaining PMSLT modelling as used in SHINE:

Income loss by disease, used in our PMSLT modelling to estimate productivity gains:

Describes our heterogeneity module that disaggregates populations by strata (e.g. SES, CVD absolute risk) for modelling of health gains and costs:

A whole of country panel study to estimate excess health expenditure by disease phase (first year of diagnosis, prevalent, last year of life if dying of disease); we use these relativities by disease phase to disaggregate Australian and other country disease expenditure for inputting to PMSLT modelling:


A report summarizing COVID-19 Pandemic Tradeoffs scenarios for ‘living with the virus’ in 2022:

Our COVID agent-based model linked to our PMSLT model to estimate HALYs and costs for policy options to manage COVID-19 in 2020 in Victoria, Australia:

A pivotal paper that strengthened the case for Australasia to follow an elimination strategy in 2020:


A paper summarizing a large body of NZ work in the Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Program (BODE3) on food taxes and subsidies, propagated through PMSLT modelling to quantify health gains and costs:

A natural experiment analysis of the Health Star Rating system’s impact on industry reformulation of food, in both Australia and New Zealand:


A ‘proof of principle’ paper applying tobacco PMSLT modelling to the Solomon Islands, drawing on Global Burden of Disease data – an example of ‘scaling out’ in SHINE:

An example of PMSLT modelling applied to e-cigarette liberalization in New Zealand:

A critique of existing tobacco intervention modelling, that lays out the criteria we look for in robust and comparable modelling: