Simulation Modelling and Risk Prediction

Our research includes the development of a range of simulation models and risk prediction tools.

Overview

Our research includes the development of a range of simulation models and risk prediction tools.

Many health economic questions involve use of simulation modelling, as it can take years for intervention to have an impact particularly on chronic diseases such as diabetes. The development of these simulation models requires extensive development time and experience, as they involve exhaustive synthesis of clinical and economic data. Our Unit is involved in the development of several simulation models for use in evaluating interventions for:

  • Type 1 and 2 Diabetes
  • Cardiovascular disease (including for indigenous Australians)
  • Osteoarthritis

Projects

Development and validation of a health policy simulation model for cardiovascular disease

Development and validation of a health policy simulation model for Type 1 diabetes

Building a simulation model to improve cardiovascular disease risk prediction and treatment for Indigenous Australians

Selected Publications

LUNG, TW., CLARKE, PM., Hayes, AJ., Stevens, RJ., & Farmer, A. (2013). Simulating lifetime outcomes associated with complications for people with type 1 diabetesPharmacoeconomics, 31(6), 509-518.

Hayes, AJ., Leal, J., Gray, AM., Holman, RR., & CLARKE, PM. (2013). UKPDS Outcomes Model 2: a new version of a model to simulate lifetime health outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using data from the 30 year United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study: UKPDS 82.Diabetologia,1-9.

SCHILLING, C., DALZIEL, K., Nunn, R., Du Plessis, K., Shi, W. Y., Celermajer, D., ... & Bullock, A. (2016). The Fontan epidemic: Population projections from the Australia and New Zealand Fontan Registry. International Journal of Cardiology, 219, 14-19.